After a welcome break, the top European international teams got set to go hammer and tongs at each other again. Ireland , the world’s undisputed #1 ranked team after their defeat of the world #2 ranked team, France, two weeks ago take on the lowly Italians, a team that is often relegated to the wooden spoon of the 6N. England, fresh off a victory over Italy and looking to build some momentum, took on a struggling Wales – both on and off the field. And France took on the brave Scots who are flying high and hoping for a sniff at the crown.
Did it pan out as the punters expected? Well, yes and no. Most of the scores were never really in doubt, but what did make us rugby fans sit up and take notice was the fact that the ‘big boys’ of Ireland, France, and England most certainly did not have it all their own way.
Beware the valiant Italians
We’re three rounds into the 2023 Guinness 6 Nations and it seems that Italy are truly improving. Since 2000 the Italians have more often than not walked away with the wooden spoon, with their best ever result being a fourth place finish in 2013 after securing wins against France and Ireland. Every year there are whispers of an improved outfit that’s more galvanised, gritty and competitive and every year we’re left disappointed. Italy has given us some unforgettable moments in between, and their rugby hall of fame undoubtedly has some legends that could have featured in any team in the world. Talismanic captain and 8th man Sergio Parisse being one of them and the long-locked prop Martin Castrogiovanni another.
What was different about the teams that Parisse and Castrogiovanni featured in was that they were quite obviously the best players in their teams, without all that much support. Whereas, this year, it’s quite hard to pick out too many individual stars from the Italian team because they all seem pretty damn good. If I had to pick a main man at the moment however, it would undoubtedly be IRB Breakthrough Player of the Year in 2022 – Ange Capuozzo. The diminutive fullback burst onto the scene last year with some outrageous running rugby and has been Italy’s main attacking threat since then. Flyhalf stalwart Tomasso Allan is still in the mix and younger more exciting editions to their back like Pierre Bruno and Stephen Varney are looking like they’ve got a big future in the game. South African born back rower Sebastian Negri is outstanding. He’s physical and mobile and absolutely battered Owen Farrell two weeks ago when they played England which immediately makes him a hero in my eyes.
So, it’s clear that Italy has almost enough to challenge for better than their standard 6th place finish and I’m pretty sure at the end of the competition they won’t find themselves at the bottom of the table. That’s a big bet to make, seeing as they’ve lost all 3 of their matches, but I’m looking at how they lost when I make that prediction.
Their opener against reigning champions France could have easily gone their way in Rome – finishing 29-24. Against England the margin was bigger but there were long periods of play where the Azzurri were obviously the dominant team and then, this weekend, they pushed world number one Ireland all the way to the end in a game that finished 34-20. The score line is in no way indicative of how the game panned out. Ireland had to go to some really dark places to keep the Azzurri quiet and in the end they just had more class, more gas and more finesse when it came to the final pass. The Italians must be sick to death of being called “valiant” “brave” or “respectable” – but it’s better than being called a walkover.
The reason I think they’re not going to find themselves at the bottom of the table this year is because the wooden spoon spot is most likely going to the Welsh. Italy and Wales meet on the 11th of March and my money is on the Azzurri. The Welsh are in utter disarray as a team and as a union. They’ve had to call on players like Leigh Halfpenny (who’s been playing rugby longer that Ange Capuozzo has been alive) just to have some semblance of stability in their team. I hate to see the Welsh suffer like this and would have loved to have seen them come away with a win against England this weekend, but the truth is – they’re just a poor rugby side right now.
More thorns than Roses
Call me petty, but I love a bad English rugby team. “Bad” might be an overstatement but compared to the English teams of the past decade I truly believe that they’re at a low point – and I have a feeling they’re going to get worse before they get better – which is not what they’ll want to admit in a World Cup year.
Let’s start with a couple of reasons why I think they’re not worth betting on to finish in the top 3 this year. Steve Borthwick’s appointment was a controversial one. Eddie Jones got the axe less than 12 months before a World Cup competition and Borthwick came into the setup with a lot of nay-sayers voicing their opinions on his appointment and, so far, they’ve been right. Every week we’ve seen a different team, which indicates that he's experimenting with different combinations, but it seems that he’s experimenting to the point of not being able to find any sort of consistency.
Sure he’s been dealing with injuries in key positions like Tom Curry in the back row, but some of his selections are just a bit peculiar. His backrow against Wales this weekend of Willis, Dombrandt and Ludlam looked more like a club back row than a test back row, whilst I think Itoje’s shine in the second row is starting to dim just a touch.
His scrumhalf and pivot dilemma continues. Van Poortvliet has made the number 9 jersey his own but choosing between Farrell and Smith at 10 seems to be his biggest problem. Both flyhalves stylistically influence the team in completely different ways. Smith opens the backline right up. He creates space, his cross kicks are sublime and he can dance his way around a defender or two at will. Farrell plays like a centre at flyhalf but when he plays at centre he’s just not as good as Ollie Lawrence. So, what do you do? Do you drop Farrell, the only player in the side with his level of experience, to make room for Smith at 10? Or do you drop Lawrence who’s probably been England’s find of the season at 12? Tough work. But the reality is that it’s decisions like these that the best coaches seem to make. It’s also decisions like these that have seen England lose three times on the bounce – to ‘have-a-go’ Scotland and a fight for their lives against an unbelievably poor Wales. England will finish fourth this year behind Ireland, France and Scotland – because they’re the fourth best team in Europe. That’s how I’m betting this weekend when they take on France at Twickenham.
Great Scot!
32-21 was the score line at Stade de France as a tireless and resolute French defensive effort eventually proved too much for an unrelenting Scottish outfit that just seems to be getting better. It’s weird to focus on the losing side in a piece of sports writing, but the men from Scotland just keep continuing to impress. Both teams were reduced to 14 men early on in the contest which made for an open yet cagey affair. Finn Russell and Huw Jones shone for the Scottish with some flair and fight. Fickou defended like a one-man fortress and the French pack was super at the lineout, whilst the Scottish scrum bent some spines. It truly was a titanic battle decided by the smallest of margins and Scotland is officially a team worth their salt in the 6 Nations and possibly even rugby worldwide.
In a game that began with Scotland looking like they were about to become haggis at the hands of the French, where two red cards in five minutes – both from epic brainfarts from Test players – looked like it was going to become the talk of the game, it was two teams that play absolutely sublime rugby that grabbed all the headlines.
Finn on form is a masterclass, DuPont is a once-in-a-generation rugby mind and player, Hogg is as solid as the Edinburgh Castle, Ramos is a sniper at the posts, Duhan is a beast, Fickou is a beast tamer, the lists go on.
The match of the weekend!
Predictions for round 4
Here are my predictions for round 4 this coming weekend and a little bit of insight as to how I’m placing my bets. Italy will take on Wales in Rome and I’ve got some bucks behind Italy winning by 8 or more points. I’m not even sure if Gatland knows who’s going to run out this weekend and Wales look too disjointed to pull off a win this year.
France will out-flair and out-fight England at Twickenham by 10 points or more. Even though the French haven’t been at their best, England aren’t looking solid enough to keep them at bay for 80 minutes. The English hate losing to France, particularly at home – and I believe the moment will be too big for them to make it an interesting contest.
Scotland host Ireland in what I believe will be the match of the weekend. Call me crazy, but I’m betting on an upset here. I know I’ll probably look back at this decision and regret it because of how good Ireland is – but they looked a little shaky away from home in Rome and Murrayfield is not an easy place to go and play rugby anymore. I’ve got Finn Russel with a man of the match performance and Scotland winning by 2, in a game that’ll open the entire 6 Nations right up.
Let’s see what happens.