Bookies have Boks as the underdogs
Last Saturday, and according to my prediction (it’s a pleasure to the punters and a big sorry to the Bokke fans), the Springboks went down narrowly to the Irish at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin. And to be honest, it could have and arguably should have been by a bigger margin. Both flyhalves, Sexton and Willemse were woeful from the tee, with Willemse putting in a bad enough shift for Cheslin Kolbe to take over as kicker after he returned from the sin bin for a dangerous tackle in the opening minutes of the game. Ireland proved that they’re not the number one ranked team in the world by mistake but, truth be told, it was an incredibly mediocre performance by the men in green and gold by their World Champion standards.
Bookmakers had Ireland as the favourites to win last week and this week is no different as the Boks are seen as the underdogs going into this weekend’s battle against the French in France. It’s not often that a Springbok win has such low odds, but if you’re a South African rugby fan maybe it’s something to get used to. Here’s why…
Bok brutishness isn’t enough
If there’s one thing we learned about last week’s game against Ireland is that our big boys aren’t always going to be the biggest, hardest and fastest on the pitch. For years we’ve relied on a bombastic, sizeable pack that has chewed up and spat out the opposition without even hitting 5th gear. Last week however, our big boys were given a bit of a tutorial on how to be big and fast and fit.
From number one to number 8, the Irish pack was up for it.
In fact, it was one of the most brutal first halves of rugby I’ve watched in a long time. If the Boks made a big hit, the Irish made a bigger one. If we gained scrum ascendancy once, they took it back three or four times. Our front row of Kitshoff, Marx and Malherbe were pinged numerous times during the game and weren’t enjoying the usual level of success that they enjoy at scrum time, which meant our backs got less ball and the team got less points. When we were able to win some penalties back however, Damian Willemse looked properly uncertain behind the tee, and even worse out of hand, missing touch more than once – which, in a game of fine margins, is just not good enough.
Come the showdown against the most flairest of flair sides and the coaching staff have reacted to one of the issues and named 2 changes in the front 3 to face off against the French. Nche and Mbonambi come in for Kitshoff and Marx whilst Malherbe retains his spot. We’ve always had two interchangeable front rows and I’m glad to see the changes up front after last week’s less than average performance.
However, Willemse has held onto his spot at number 10 which raises a few eyebrows. There’s no doubt Damian Willemse is an exciting and versatile young player with a lot of ‘X’ Factor – but being a great schoolboy and Currie Cup flyhalf doesn’t make you a test match flyhalf. Every World Cup winning squad has a number 10 that can be backed to nail the crucial kicks, either for touch or for poles, and last week he performed neither of those tasks very well at all. The apprehension to give Libbok a start confuses me. Sure he’s untested at this level but if this Autumn Series is about trying new combinations and forming the blueprint for our World Cup squad, maybe the risk of new blood is worth taking. Willemse has looked far more comfortable at 15 than he has at 10 and I would have loved to have seen Libbok given his chance. What if Pollard, God forbid, gets injured again before the World Cup and Willemse continues to make schoolboy errors? Do we then call on Morné Steyn again? Does Johan Goosen get one more shot? Or do we back a URC finals flyhalf with an 86% kicking success rate who can also show and go, step and offload? Thankfully he’s on the bench and if Willemse pulls out the same kind of performance in the first half like he did last week – Libbok must play 40 minutes.
In other news de Klerk comes in for Hendrikse who was dead average last week, Kolbe returns home to the wing where he’s obviously more comfortable and Le Roux starts at 15 with Mapimpi eating the bench for the first time since 2018.
French are fearless and fit
Remember the flairest of flair comment above? Well, from 1 to 15, this French outfit is pretty world class. They’re fit, fired up and frothing for another Southern Hemisphere scalp after Damian Penaud’s wonderous solo effort secured them a one point win over Australia last week. I spoke briefly about the Irish pack and how they managed to front up and eventually dominate the Boks and I fear the same about the French. Their front row of Baille, Marchand and Anonio are prolific in tight battles but can move around the park as well as most back rowers can, which makes the fact that they have an electric back row even more nerve wracking. All through their outstanding 6 Nations triumph, Jelonch, Ollivon and Alldritt were outrageous. Their engines go for miles, their intensity never wavers and they just love getting their hands on the ball and moving bodies. Wiese didn’t give us what we needed in those areas last week and Kolisi was a lukewarm version of himself which he can’t afford to be against these lads if we want a sniff.
Last week I said Marx would have to be a world-class hooker and flanker at the same time if we were to stand a chance and he wasn’t, so this week that responsibility falls into Mbonambi’s hands – who, when he’s at his best, can do it. Their forwards are fearsome but the backline is also a pretty scary prospect. The Australians managed to keep Dupont quiet by his standards, but I still back him to be one of the best if not the best player in the world, and keeping him quiet twice won’t be easy. Ntamack looked pretty comfortable on his return from injury and will be ably supported by Danty and Fickou in midfield. Jesse Kriel gave a good account of himself defensively last week but Danty and Fickou are probably a bit hotter with ball in-hand than Henshaw and Ringrose. The true terror of the backline however is who I believe to be the best winger in the world – Damian Penaud who could probably give even 2019 Kolbe a run for his money.
France is your best bet
At the most superficial and simplified level, I think the Boks have too much to fix to win this game. I won’t unpack my flyhalf worries again, nor will I express my concern over our pack’s physicality and fitness for a second time. All I’ll say is that I think the French are better player-for-player in at least 10 positions right now. They’re confident and playing at home, whilst the Boks are probably still a bit bleak about Ireland. That being said, a beaten Springbok team is often a very dangerous Springbok team, so hopefully that might awaken a few demons and bring them back to life when it counts.
Even if they do – I have the French winning by 5 or more.
It will probably still be a fairly tight contest, because even an average Springbok team is pretty damn good, but the French quality and stamina will probably have the edge on them in the end. Let’s see what happens.