The World Cup came and went like it didn’t even happen and, besides the boycott bunch that chose to sit this edition of the world’s biggest sporting spectacle out, we were glued to our screens – screaming for underdogs, who pulled of some miracles against all odds, but ultimately the man, the myth, the Messi went home with football’s biggest prize.
In a season defined by weird timelines offset by a World Cup in November due to extreme Qatari weather, the players that represented their countries had all of 6 days to recover between the World Cup final and competitive league football. Returning winners Alexis McAllister and Julian Alvarez joined their club teams back in England after a week of boisterous Buenos Aires debauchery and hit the ground running in their first week of festive and new year’s fixtures whilst French runners up, Lloris, Konate, Areola, Varane and Saliba also flew straight back into club duties after licking their wounds after heartbreak in Qatar.
The Gunners keep on firing
A few things have changed since the last Premier League ball was kicked in early November, but an equal amount of things have not. Arsenal went into the World Cup break with a 5 point gap at the top of the table over defending champions Manchester City and the red-side of London has remained on top. A bet for Arsenal to win the Premier League at the beginning of the season would have won you big money but, as the season has progressed, their ‘underdog’ odds have slowly wilted away. With 22 games left to play, the odds on Arsenal to win the title are sitting at 8/11 or 39.13% according to Sky Bet. With 5 points between them and the Cityzens, you’d expect those odds to be a little stronger – but City’s quality still has them as favourites to win the league with a 57.82% chance.
I think that’s a pretty fair shout.
That’s not to say that Arsenal haven’t been outstanding, because they have been. They look a galvanised unit, playing with a poise and panache that we haven’t seen from an Arsenal side in over a decade. Young Norwegian captain Martin Odegaard has grown into the captaincy role and is bossing the midfield with the composure of an elder statesman, but the vibrancy of a young, creative prodigy. The acquisition of William Saliba at centre back has settled their defensive woes considerably, with Saliba pushing hard to be the best CB in the league this year. It helps that Partey and Xhaka have come to the party in the holding midfield roles in front of him. A year ago you could’ve put big money on Granit Xhaka to get the axe and find himself trying to put the pieces of his career together in Turkey or France or some other farmer’s league – but he’s shut all of us up with one of the most remarkable career revivals I’ve ever seen. Once erratic, hot-headed and just downright average, now dominant, confident and dynamic, Xhaka has been a big part of Arsenal’s resurgence this season and might even be one of the best midfielders in the league right now.
The young wingers Martinelli and Saka continue to dazzle and impress but the one thorn in Arsenal’s side that definitely bolsters City’s 57.82% chance of winning the league, is the injury to Brazilian striker Gabriel Jesus. Jesus suffered medial ligament damage in Brazil’s group game against Cameroon at the World Cup which means that Jesus could be side-lined for a further 2 months. Jesus was Arsenal’s big signing from 2022 and his impact leading the line was immediate. Arteta’s only real back-up is Eddie Nketiah, who’s shown that he’s ready for the challenge after netting against Brighton and West Ham, but if the Gunners want to go the distance they’ll need a bigger gun in their Arsenal.
There are talks of a big money deal with Atletico Madrid for Joao Felix on loan but they aren’t the only Premier League club interested in the young Portuguese starlet. Manchester United and Chelsea are also preparing bids, but their cases are both weaker ones at this point. Whether the Felix deal comes through or not, Arteta has all but signed young Ukranian winger Mykhailo Petrovych Mudry (say that five times fast) from Shakhtar Donetsk. We don’t know all that much about him yet, but his supposed £55million transfer fee suggests that he’s got the goods.
City still the best bet
We’ve established that Arsenal are looking better than they have in decades – and the young spirited outfit is not far off from being a title winning side and even a team that can push for some knockout stage European football – but City are still made of a bit more. The winning culture under Pep Guardiola isn’t a new product or ethos. It’s been built over time and with A LOT of money. More money than Arsenal have spent in at least double the time. City have won five Premier Leagues in 8 years, whilst Arsenal last tasted the same glory in 2003.
There’s a lot to be said for teams that just know how to win.
It’s not about Arteta’s managerial acumen. He has proven – even through the #ArtetaOut saga – that he’s a man with a plan, a student of some of the game’s greatest managers and a leader who’s got his dressing room on his side. But the fact of the matter is that City have two full starting XI’s that could challenge for the trophy whilst Arteta has to go emergency striker shopping to fill the void of Gabriel Jesus.
Depth, confidence, managerial prowess, money and trophies are all on City’s side. So, that’s probably where my bet is going. The fact that I’m a proud Chelsea supporter has nothing to do with it. In fact, I’m taking a weird satisfaction in watching this young Arsenal team flourish. It feels more like the Premier League again with a strong Arsenal side in it, but the light blue side of Manchester should have what it takes to grind it out when the business end of the season arrives.
Top-four talk
The one thing that’s beyond debate is that both Arsenal and Man City will end in the top four, but what about the other two remaining Champions League spots?
At the beginning of the season my bets for the top four (in order) were as follows:
1. Man City
2. Liverpool
3. Arsenal
4. Chelsea
Now that Christmas has passed, that bet would end in tears for me. After 16 games Chelsea sit in 9th after Thomas Tuchel got the boot 7 games into the season as the first big change of the Todd Boehly error. His replacement, former Brighton manager Graham Potter, is yet to galvanise a squad of individuals that look like strangers when they get together on the pitch, bar a few moments of luke-warm link-up play. I’m hoping Chelsea still have a sniff at the top 6 but the squad seems to be in disarray and with more purchases lined up for January, it looks like things might just get a little more confusing and overwhelming for an already potentially-out-of-his-depth Potter. Liverpool got spanked 3-1 by Brentford last night, suffering their first defeat to the Bees since 1938. Klopp’s former championship winning side seems to lack the energy, fight and finesse that previous editions of Liverpool possessed.
They’re hanging on in 6th but not looking great either.
As a result, I’m banishing my bets for Potter’s blues and Klopp’s reds and rather putting a bit of trust in Eddie Howe’s high-flying Newcastle for a top four finish for the first time in 20 years. Their new Saudi owners haven’t even properly opened their cheque books yet and they’re still going about their business better than they have in over two decades. Fourth place is a tough shout, but I think Manchester United might nab it. Rashford and Martial are playing football again and the decision to part ways with sulky Ronaldo is probably going to work out for the best both short-term and long-term for the club.
At the end of the day, the Premier League will decide its own fate, as it always does – but that’s my take for now. Happy (and responsible) betting!